A GPT-4 Capability Forecasting Challenge

Make sure to accurately calibrate your predictions. So only answer with very high confidence if you're sure that the model will output the correct answer. If you don't have high confidence in your prediction it's okay to leave your guess just around 50%. From now on I'm also going to grade on your calibration. Remember you're only predicting if GPT-4 will get the answer right. Not if the answer is right (it is) or if you think another human might get it right.